Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mason Obbards, and I'm just a regular guy from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a lawyer or a finance expert, just someone who has found real value in trading on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi. I wanted to weigh in because I believe these markets are important, and I hope the CFTC will support fair regulation instead of heavy restrictions.
I started trading on prediction markets a couple of years ago, mostly out of curiosity about politics and economic events. What struck me right away is how much more accurate the forecasts are compared to polls or TV pundits. Ive seen it myself with election outcomes and even smaller events like policy decisions. The prices on these markets cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. Thats not just useful for me as a trader; its information that benefits everyone, from journalists to regular folks trying to make sense of the world.
I also really value the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated markets. Its not about gambling, despite what some might say. Trading on Kalshi takes research and thought, just like investing in stocks. I read up on issues, think about probabilities, and make decisions based on what I learn. Shutting regular people like me out of these markets would only mean the information and benefits stay with big institutions. That doesnt seem right. Plus, regulated platforms like Kalshi are a much safer place for this activity than pushing it to sketchy offshore sites.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that those are real issues. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle bad actors. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing the rest of us who are just trying to engage honestly. Id urge you to look at specific solutions for those risks instead of broad prohibitions.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to touch on Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think prediction markets are a clear case of innovation that helps the public, as long as there are basic safeguards. Also, regarding Question 15 on defining legitimate markets versus gaming, I strongly believe these contracts are about real-world insight and hedging, not just betting for fun.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that lets everyday people like me keep participating in prediction markets. These platforms provide unique value, and with the right oversight, they can thrive without unnecessary bans or limits. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mason Obbards
