Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Leonel Quino, and I'm just an everyday citizen from the United States writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big-time trader, but I believe regular people like me should have a voice in this discussion. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under fair and reasonable regulation.
I think prediction markets are valuable because they give people a way to share and access information that you can't find anywhere else. I've seen how polls and pundits often get things wrong, but these markets seem to cut through the noise with prices that reflect what people really think. That benefits everyone, not just traders. What I care about most is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like these. It's only fair that ordinary folks have the chance to engage, not just big institutions. If only the big players get access, then all the insights stay with them, and that doesn't seem right to me.
I'm also concerned about the idea of broad bans or overly tight restrictions. I understand there are risks, like insider trading or manipulation, and those need to be addressed. But shutting down entire markets or slapping on heavy-handed rules punishes everyone, not just the bad actors. The CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other markets. Why not use those same tools here instead of broad categorical bans? I believe proportionate, targeted regulation is the way to go. Deal with specific problems without throwing out the whole idea of prediction markets.
Looking at some of the questions in your notice, I want to touch on a couple from the Public Interest section, like Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think you can do both by setting clear rules that protect people without stifling something new and useful. Also, on Question 15 from the Listed Activities section, about defining whats allowed, Id urge you not to label these markets as gaming. Theyre about research and judgment, much like investing in stocks, not just luck.
I hope the CFTC will support prediction markets with fair, focused regulations that let regular people like me participate safely. Please dont over-restrict or ban them outright. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Leonel Quino
