Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jehu Rowa, and I'm a trader and investor based in Texas. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I want to share why I believe prediction markets are valuable and deserve fair, proportionate regulation rather than heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who trades regularly, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information that's hard to find elsewhere. They're often more accurate than polls or pundits when it comes to forecasting elections and other public events. I rely on these markets to make informed decisions, not just for trading but for understanding what's likely to happen in the world. This isn't just helpful for me; it benefits everyone when better information is out there. If only big institutions had access to these markets, that information would stay locked up with them. Letting regular folks like me participate makes the system fairer and the forecasts sharper.
I also want to stress that prediction markets aren't gambling. Trading on them takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. More importantly, they help individuals and businesses hedge real risks. For example, I've used these markets to hedge against election outcomes that could impact my investments or tax situation. I know small business owners who do the same to protect against policy changes. This isn't playing a game; it's managing uncertainty in a very real way.
I understand there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and those aren't trivial issues. But the CFTC already has strong tools to address them. Insider trading by federal employees is already illegal, and your existing authority covers market manipulation on any regulated platform. Shutting down or overly restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone else. It's like closing the stock market because of insider trading scandals. Use the rules you have instead of broad bans.
I'd like to touch on a couple of your specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think prediction markets are a clear case of innovation that helps the public through better price discovery. On Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to see these contracts as economic tools, not games, since they serve real hedging purposes.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible under fair rules that address specific risks without throwing out the benefits for traders like me and the broader public.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jehu Rowa
