Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chris Bramley, and I'm a finance professional from South Carolina. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on regulated platforms like Kalshi, and Im passionate about the value these markets bring to individuals like me, as well as to the broader economy. I strongly support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, and I urge the CFTC to avoid overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you cant get from polls or pundits. The real-time predictions are, frankly, insanely cool to watch unfold. They often beat traditional forecasting methods in accuracy, which helps me make better decisions, both personally and professionally. This isnt just about trading for profit. Its about accessing unique information that benefits everyone, from regular folks to policymakers. Beyond that, these markets let me hedge real financial risks, like potential policy changes or economic shifts that could impact my work or personal finances. This hedging utility is a legitimate economic purpose, not gambling, and I believe event contracts should be recognized as such.
Im also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. We should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, activity will just move to less transparent, riskier venues. Thats a loss for American users and for oversight. On that note, I think the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading. Use those existing powers instead of creating broad categorical bans that punish everyone for the actions of a few. Informed trading, by the way, isnt a flaw. It improves price discovery and makes markets more accurate for all participants.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 8 under Public Interest, I believe prediction markets clearly serve the public good through better forecasting and risk management. And on Question 15 under Listed Activities, I urge the CFTC to avoid classifying event contracts as gaming. Theyre distinct from gambling and serve real economic functions, much like other derivatives.
Academic research backs this up. Studies consistently show prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, often outperforming other methods. We should lean on that data and craft rules that protect users without stifling innovation. Im all for regulation, but it needs to be targeted and fair, focusing on specific risks rather than sweeping prohibitions.
Thank you for considering my input. I hope the CFTC will support a framework that allows prediction markets to thrive under sensible oversight, keeping the U.S. at the forefront of financial innovation.
Sincerely,
Chris Bramley
