Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michael Munday, and I'm just a regular citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a lawyer or a financial expert, but I do actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and Ive come to see the real value in prediction markets. Im asking for a small bonus bet for taking the time to write this, but more importantly, I want to explain why I support well-regulated prediction markets and why I think the CFTC should too.
For someone like me, prediction markets arent just a hobby. Theyre a way to get information that I cant find anywhere else. Ive seen firsthand how these markets often predict outcomes, like elections or economic shifts, way more accurately than polls or TV pundits. Thats not just helpful for traders, its useful for everyone, from regular folks like me to policymakers who need good data. Plus, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive placed trades on election outcomes that could affect my taxes or on inflation data that impacts my budget for rent and groceries. Its not gambling, its a practical tool, much like buying stocks based on research and judgment.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Shutting regular people out and leaving these tools only to big institutions feels unfair. It keeps the best information locked away from the rest of us. On top of that, I worry that over-restricting prediction markets could hurt U.S. competitiveness. We should be leading the way in financial innovation, not pushing activity to offshore platforms with no oversight. Regulated markets like Kalshi are a safer bet than unregulated alternatives.
I want to address a concern I know the CFTC has, especially around manipulation and insider trading, as mentioned in questions 29-32 of the ANPR. I get why this is a worry, but I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues. Insider trading and market manipulation are illegal, and your existing authority over derivatives markets can be applied here. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors punishes the majority of us who use these platforms responsibly. Its like closing a highway because a few drivers speed. Use the rules youve got, dont block the road.
I also think prediction markets serve the public interest, as discussed in questions 7-14. They improve price discovery and help everyone make better decisions with better information. I urge you to focus on proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without broad bans or heavy-handed limits.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and ask that you craft rules that allow them to thrive while protecting users like me.
Sincerely,
Michael Munday
