Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Rene Cea, and I'm an everyday citizen from the United States writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've taken the time to learn about them, and I strongly support their development under fair and balanced regulation. I believe they offer real value to people like me, and I want to urge the CFTC to regulate them thoughtfully without banning or overly restricting them.
I see prediction markets as a unique tool for understanding the world. The prices they generate often seem more accurate than polls or expert opinions, and that kind of information helps everyone, not just traders. What strikes me most is that these markets aren't gambling, no matter how some might label them. Trading on events like elections or economic data takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22, ignores their legitimate economic purpose. They help people hedge risks, like a small business owner managing uncertainty around policy changes, or someone like me trying to make sense of inflation data affecting my budget. This isn't a game; it's a practical way to deal with real-world uncertainty.
I'm also concerned that banning or over-restricting these markets, as hinted at in past proposals, would push activity to offshore platforms where there's no oversight. I'd much rather see the CFTC regulate markets like Kalshi here in the US, keeping them safe and transparent. Driving trading overseas, as touched on in Questions 7-14 about public interest, just hurts American users and cedes innovation to other countries. We should be leading on this, not stepping back.
Lastly, I believe informed trading actually makes these markets better. As raised in Questions 29-32 on inside information, people who know more and trade on it help prices reflect reality. That's a benefit to everyone, not a flaw. Of course, illegal insider trading by federal officials should be policed, but the CFTC already has tools to handle that. Shutting down markets to stop a few bad actors punishes the rest of us who just want access to this information.
I ask the CFTC to support prediction markets with proportionate rules that address specific risks without broad bans or harsh limits. Let's keep these markets accessible, regulated, and American. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Rene Cea
