Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Egan Guzaldo, and I'm a trader and investor from Illinois. I work in predictions, actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why they matter to me and why I believe the CFTC should regulate them proportionately rather than imposing broad restrictions or bans.
As someone who trades on prediction markets, Ive seen firsthand how they produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Whether its an election outcome or a major public event, the aggregated wisdom of these markets cuts through noise and bias. This isnt just helpful for traders like me; its valuable for the public, media, and even policymakers who need reliable information. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks tied to economic or political events, like potential tax changes or regulatory shifts that could impact my investments. This isnt gambling. Its a legitimate tool for managing uncertainty, much like trading futures or options.
Im also convinced that regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than the alternative. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, activity wont stop; itll just move to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight. The U.S. should lead in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries. The CFTC already has robust tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work here. Banning entire categories of event contracts to stop a few bad actors punishes everyone else and ignores the real economic purpose these markets serve, like price discovery and risk management. Informed trading, far from being a problem, actually sharpens prices and benefits all participants.
Id like to address a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public by offering better information and hedging tools, and regulation should balance innovation with consumer protection, not stifle it. On Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge the CFTC to recognize that event contracts arent gambling; theyre grounded in research and real-world judgment, just like any other investment. And on Question 29, about inside information, I think informed traders improve price discovery, and existing laws already prohibit federal officials or others from abusing nonpublic information.
I ask the CFTC to support proportionate, targeted regulation of prediction markets. Focus on specific risks with the tools you already have, rather than broad bans that push activity offshore or limit valuable innovation. Thank you for considering my perspective as a trader who sees the real benefits of these markets every day.
Sincerely,
Egan Guzaldo
