Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nicholas Medo, and I'm a trader and investor based in Minnesota. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I believe theyre valuable and why the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation rather than overly restrictive rules.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide unique information that you just cant find elsewhere. Whether its an election outcome or a major public event, the prices on these platforms often predict results more accurately than polls or pundits. Ive used these forecasts to make informed decisions, not just for trading but for understanding the world around me. This isnt just helpful for traders like me; its a public good. When everyday people can access this kind of aggregated insight, it benefits everyone, from small business owners to regular citizens trying to plan ahead.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. Trading on prediction markets isnt a game of chance. It requires research, analysis, and real-world judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Ive spent hours digging into data and news to make my trades, and thats not luck; its work. These markets serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks tied to political or economic events that affect my investments. Labeling them as gaming feels like a misunderstanding of what theyre about.
Addressing some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to touch on Question 7 under Public Interest. I believe prediction markets strike a balance between innovation and consumer protection when theyre regulated properly. The CFTC already has strong tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading, as noted in questions under Core Principles and Inside Information, like Questions 1 and 29. Ive traded on regulated platforms like Kalshi, and I trust the oversight in place to catch bad actors. Creating new bans or restrictions isnt the answer; enforcing the existing rules is. Shutting down or over-restricting these markets would only push activity to unregulated, offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all.
Lastly, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets let regular people like me have a stake in understanding and forecasting major events. Thats not something that should be limited to big institutions. I urge the CFTC to craft rules that protect participants while allowing these markets to thrive.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid broad bans or excessive restrictions.
Sincerely,
Nicholas Medo
