Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alejandro Martinez, and I'm a student based in California. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand the value these markets provide, and I believe the CFTC has a chance to foster innovation while protecting consumers.
Prediction markets arent just a niche interest for me; theyre a powerful tool. Ive used platforms like Kalshi to better understand real-world events, from election outcomes to economic indicators. The forecasts these markets produce consistently outshine polls or pundit opinions. As a student, I find this aggregated information incredibly useful for research and learning about how events unfold. Beyond my personal use, I believe these accurate forecasts benefit society as a whole, helping everyone from journalists to policymakers make better decisions.
I also value my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the U.S. over-restricts or bans these markets, activity will just move to less secure venues where theres no consumer protection. Id much rather trade on a regulated platform where I know there are rules in place. Plus, prediction markets arent just about speculation. They help individuals and businesses hedge real risks. For example, Ive placed trades to offset uncertainties around policy changes that could affect my future job prospects or student loan costs. Thats not gambling; its practical.
Im aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues. Youve successfully regulated other derivatives markets with similar risks, and I trust those same mechanisms can work here. Banning or overly restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone else. And honestly, the U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not handing the advantage to other countries. If we dont support these markets, other nations will, and well lose out on both economic growth and cutting-edge ideas.
Id like to specifically address a few questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public by democratizing access to information and hedging tools. On Question 29, about inside information, I think informed traders often improve price accuracy, and existing laws already prohibit misuse of nonpublic data. Lets focus on enforcing those, not broad restrictions.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with targeted rules that address specific risks without stifling innovation or participation. These markets are too valuable to over-restrict, and I want to see the U.S. at the forefront of this space.
Sincerely,
Alejandro Martinez
