Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Wilson, and I'm a student from Louisiana. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe strongly that well-regulated prediction markets have a lot of value for people like me and for society as a whole. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than imposing bans or overly restrictive rules.
As a student, I spend a lot of time studying data, analyzing trends, and trying to understand the world around me. Prediction markets have been an incredible tool for that. I've found that the forecasts on platforms like Kalshi are often way more accurate than what I see from polls or pundits on TV. For example, during the last election cycle, I noticed the market prices on Kalshi reflected shifts in voter sentiment days before any poll caught up. This kind of real-time information isn't just useful for traders; it could help journalists, policymakers, and regular citizens make better decisions. I think this ties directly to your questions 7 and 8 in the ANPR about the public interest and price discovery benefits of event contracts.
I also want to stress that these markets aren't gambling, no matter what some critics say. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm doing research and making informed judgments about real-world events, just like someone trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in questions 15 and 16, ignores their legitimate economic purpose. They're a way to aggregate information and even hedge risks. I don't have a business to hedge, but I can see how someone could use these markets to protect against policy changes or economic shifts that impact their life.
Another big concern for me is safety and access. Trading on a regulated platform like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight, feels secure. I know there are rules in place to prevent manipulation and protect users. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, people won't just stop trading. They'll move to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no protections. I've seen those sites advertised online, and they look sketchy. Addressing questions 9 and 10 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe regulated markets are the answer, not prohibitions. Banning these markets would also mean the US loses its chance to lead in financial innovation. We should be setting the standard, not letting other countries take over.
I'm just a student, but I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like this. I understand there are risks, like insider trading or manipulation, but the CFTC already has tools to handle those issues. Please don't punish everyone by shutting down or over-regulating prediction markets. I respectfully ask that you craft rules that support innovation while addressing specific risks with targeted solutions.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Ryan Wilson
