Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Benjamin Thorp, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Ohio writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they serve a real purpose for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than banning or over-restricting them.
I run a small side business here in Ohio, and I've found prediction markets helpful for hedging personal financial risks tied to things like election outcomes or economic policy changes. For instance, last year I used a platform to offset potential impacts on my business from a tariff decision that was up in the air. That kind of tool isn't gambling. It's a practical way to manage uncertainty, much like how farmers use futures to hedge crop prices. I think event contracts have legitimate economic purposes and shouldn't be lumped in with gaming, as discussed in some of your questions under Listed Activities (Questions 15-22).
I'm also a firm believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets give regular folks like me a chance to engage with information and make decisions, not just big institutions. I've noticed that when people trade based on real knowledge, the prices on these platforms often reflect a clearer picture of what's likely to happen than polls or news outlets. This ties into your questions on Inside Information (Questions 29-32). Informed trading isn't a problem; it actually improves price discovery and benefits everyone by making the market smarter.
What worries me is the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. If that happens, people won't just stop trading. They'll move to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight. I'd much rather see the CFTC regulate markets like Kalshi here in the US, where there are rules and protections in place. This also connects to Public Interest (Questions 7-14). The US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries by pushing activity overseas.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those aren't trivial. But the CFTC already has tools to address bad actors without shutting down entire markets. I hope you'll focus on targeted, proportionate rules that keep prediction markets accessible and safe for regular people.
Thank you for considering my input. I strongly support the CFTC crafting regulations that allow prediction markets to thrive under fair oversight, without broad bans or excessive restrictions.
Sincerely,
Benjamin Thorp
