Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is David Murillo, and I'm just a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope my perspective as an everyday user can help shape your approach.
I got into prediction markets because I saw how often polls and pundits get things wrong. Whether it's an election or some big economic event, the forecasts on these platforms have consistently been sharper. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders like me; it's valuable for everyone, from journalists to regular folks trying to make sense of the world. I believe keeping these markets accessible is important, not just for people with deep pockets, but for ordinary citizens like me who want a fair shot at participating. Locking us out would mean the best data stays with big institutions, and that doesn't seem right.
I'm also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. I've looked at some offshore platforms out of curiosity, and they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as a regulated market like Kalshi. If you make it too hard to trade legally in the US, people won't just stop; they'll go to those sketchy sites instead. That puts users at risk and cuts out the oversight the CFTC can provide. I'd much rather see strong, fair rules here than push activity into the shadows.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But aren't those already illegal? From what I understand, the CFTC has plenty of tools to go after bad actors in any market, including prediction markets. I'd hate to see a whole system shut down because of a few cheaters when you already have ways to handle those problems. In response to some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area E about inside information (Questions 29-32), I think informed traders actually help make prices more accurate as long as they're playing by the rules. The focus should be on enforcing existing laws, not creating new barriers.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible under clear, fair rules that protect users and maintain US leadership in financial innovation. Thanks for considering my input.
Sincerely,
David Murillo
