Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alex Slevens, and I'm a working-class citizen from New Jersey. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and while Ive got real concerns about how these platforms operate, I think they can serve a purpose if regulated properly. I'm not here to cheerlead for unchecked capitalism, believe me. I see how the system erodes the lives of everyday people like me every single day. But I also think prediction markets can give us regular folks access to information and forecasts that we wouldn't get otherwise, especially on things like elections and public events that impact our lives.
Let me be upfront: I'm skeptical of how prediction markets make their money. It often feels like the rules are written with so many technicalities and subcategories that the house always wins, and the working class gets squeezed. I'd love to see a straight-up market on something like whether this administration will tank the global economy, but I worry it'll get buried in fine print so payouts never happen. And frankly, I think these platforms should be taxed way more heavily for the wealth they pull from people who cant afford to lose it. But here's the thing, shutting them down entirely or slapping on broad bans isn't the answer. That just pushes everything underground or offshore where theres no oversight at all, and we get screwed even worse.
I support proportionate regulation that targets the real problems, like manipulation or insider trading, without killing off the whole concept. Prediction markets can be useful for forecasting. I've seen them predict election outcomes better than polls or talking heads on TV, and that kind of info matters to me when I'm trying to figure out how policies might hit my wallet or my community. I'm looking at some of the questions in your ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 15 on defining whats legitimate versus just gaming. My take? Focus on protecting regular users from predatory practices, not blanket restrictions that hurt the little guy while the big players find workarounds.
Im not blind to the downsides. These markets can be gamed by the rich and powerful, no question. But the CFTC already has tools to go after fraud and manipulation. Use them. Dont punish everyone by over-restricting or banning categories of contracts. Im asking you to regulate prediction markets in a way thats fair, transparent, and doesnt just cater to the wealthy insiders while leaving the rest of us out in the cold.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Alex Slevens
