Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Reilly Kasabri, and Im just an everyday citizen from New Jersey working in the food industry. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as a regular person using these platforms can help inform your decisions.
For someone like me, prediction markets are a game-changer. Working in the food industry, I deal with a lot of uncertainty, like price swings in ingredients or policy changes that affect supply chains. Ive started using prediction markets to hedge some of that risk, betting on outcomes that could impact my job or small investments. Its not about gambling; its about protecting myself with information I can actually understand. Unlike stocks or complex derivatives, these markets let me engage with events I follow in the news, and that feels empowering.
I believe these markets are good for society too. Ive seen how their forecasts often beat polls or pundits when it comes to predicting elections or economic trends. That kind of accurate information helps everyone, not just traders like me. It can guide public decision-making or even help businesses plan better. Plus, allowing regular folks to participate makes the data stronger, since more voices mean better price discovery. Informed trading isnt a problem; its a benefit that improves the market for all of us.
I also worry that banning or over-restricting these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I use a regulated market like Kalshi because I trust its safer, with oversight to prevent manipulation or fraud. If you make it too hard to trade legally here, people will just go elsewhere, and thats riskier for everyone. On top of that, the U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not falling behind other countries who embrace these tools.
To address some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think prediction markets clearly serve a public good through price discovery and risk management. And in Topic Area C (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming. Theyre not about luck; theyre about research and real-world judgment, just like any other investment. They serve a legitimate economic purpose for people like me.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, but those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to enforce the rules. Dont punish the majority of honest users by shutting down these markets. I respectfully ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, allowing regular citizens like me to participate in legal, safe platforms without overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Reilly Kasabri
