Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nikol Hladikova, and I'm a student and academic based in Illinois. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they serve a valuable purpose for individuals, businesses, and society as a whole. I appreciate the CFTC's effort to seek public input before drafting formal rules, and I hope my perspective as a student concerned with research and transparency can add to this conversation.
As someone engaged in academic work, I see prediction markets as a powerful tool for generating better information. The prices on these platforms often reflect a level of insight that you can't find in traditional polls or expert opinions. This isn't just helpful for traders; it's useful for the public, policymakers, and researchers like me who rely on accurate data to understand trends and make informed decisions. Beyond that, prediction markets allow individuals and businesses to hedge against real risks, whether it's an election outcome affecting tax policies or a regulatory change impacting a small business. I've seen firsthand how these platforms can provide a sense of control over uncertainty, and I think that's worth preserving.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, offer a safe and transparent way for regular people like me to engage with these tools. If we push too hard with restrictions or bans, I worry that activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no protections. That seems like a step backward, especially when the CFTC already has the authority to tackle issues like market manipulation and insider trading. We don't need to shut down entire markets to address a few bad actors; we need targeted rules that keep the good while minimizing the risks.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a couple from the Public Interest section, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think the CFTC can strike that balance by focusing on strong oversight without broad prohibitions. Also, regarding Question 15 in the Listed Activities section, I believe event contracts should be defined by their economic purpose, like hedging or price discovery, rather than being lumped in with gaming. These aren't lottery tickets; they require research and judgment, much like any other investment.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Allow students, academics, and everyday citizens to benefit from the information and opportunities these markets provide, while ensuring safeguards are in place. Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
Nikol Hladikova
