Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Adam Hazell, and I'm a software engineer based in California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on regulated platforms like Kalshi, I've come to value these markets not just for personal reasons, but for their broader benefits to society. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets rather than imposing bans or overly restrictive rules.
For me, prediction markets are more than a hobby. I develop algorithms to help me trade, using my programming and math skills to generate extra income in a tough economic climate. This side activity means I don't have to take a second job, which lets me spend more time with my family. It's a practical way to apply my tech background while managing personal financial risks, like hedging against election outcomes or economic events that could impact my budget. Honestly, it's been a game-changer.
I believe these markets offer real value beyond my own situation. They provide accurate forecasting for public events, often outpacing polls or pundits when it comes to elections or policy shifts. That kind of information isn't just useful to traders like me; it helps everyone make better decisions. Also, allowing regular people like me to participate keeps the system fair. If only big players can trade, the insights stay locked up with them. Democratized access makes the data better for all of us.
I want to address a concern I know the CFTC has, especially around the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming (as raised in Questions 15-22). I don't see this as gambling at all. Trading on Kalshi requires research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. It's about understanding real-world events and managing risk, not rolling dice. Calling it gaming feels like a misstep when these contracts serve legitimate economic purposes, like price discovery and hedging.
Another worry is safety, and I get that. But regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than the alternative. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people won't just stop trading. They'll move to unregulated offshore platforms with no oversight, no consumer protections, and no accountability. I've seen those sites out there, and they're a mess. Keeping activity on CFTC-registered platforms (as discussed in Questions 7-14 on public interest) ensures transparency and lets you use the tools you already have to tackle issues like manipulation or insider trading.
I'm not saying there are no risks. Of course there are. But the CFTC already has authority to address bad actors without punishing everyone else. I hope you'll focus on targeted rules that address specific problems rather than broad restrictions. Please support well-regulated prediction markets so people like me can continue to participate legally and safely while contributing to valuable public information.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Adam Hazell
