Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Amir Porteous, and Im a trader and investor based in New York. Ive been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to individuals like me and to society as a whole, and Id like to share my perspective.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you cant get from polls or news pundits. The prices reflect real-time collective wisdom, and Ive used them to make informed decisions about economic and political events that affect my investments. This isnt just helpful for traders; its valuable for anyone who wants a clearer picture of whats likely to happen, whether its a business owner planning for policy changes or just a citizen trying to understand the world. I also think its a positive thing that these markets are open to regular people like me. If only big institutions could participate, the information would stay locked up with them. Democratized access makes the data better and fairer for everyone.
I want to address a concern I know the CFTC has about whether event contracts are more like gambling than legitimate markets. From my experience, trading on Kalshi isnt a game of chance. It takes research, analysis, and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Im not rolling dice; Im studying data and making calculated decisions. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks tied to elections or economic indicators that impact my portfolio. Labeling this as gaming doesnt make sense to me, and I urge the CFTC to recognize the distinction, especially in response to Questions 15-22 on listed activities.
Another point Im passionate about is how informed trading improves price discovery. When people with knowledge trade, the prices become more accurate, and that benefits everyone in the market, not just those with inside information. I understand the worry about insider trading, as raised in Questions 29-32, but I dont think the answer is to restrict or ban these markets. Laws already prohibit federal employees and others from trading on nonpublic information, and the CFTC has tools to tackle manipulation in any market. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would punish honest traders like me and push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which is worse for everyone.
Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Focus on enforcing existing laws and crafting targeted rules for specific risks rather than broad restrictions. These markets are too valuable to over-regulate or ban. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Amir Porteous
