Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christopher Guaman, and I'm a student from New York. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for the past year, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow them to thrive while addressing valid concerns.
As a student, I don't have a huge budget, but Ive found prediction markets to be a useful tool for managing small financial risks. For example, Ive traded contracts tied to economic indicators like inflation data because it affects my budget for rent and groceries. Being able to hedge against these uncertainties, even in a small way, gives me a sense of control. I know businesses use these markets for similar reasons, like protecting against policy changes or tariff shifts. This isn't gambling. Its a practical way to manage real-world risks, much like any other investment.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. Platforms under CFTC oversight have clear rules, transparency, and protections that you just don't get with offshore alternatives. If prediction markets are over-restricted or banned, people will turn to unregulated sites, which are far riskier. I've seen friends use offshore platforms, and the lack of accountability is scary. Regulation keeps us safe, and I think the US should lead in this space. We shouldn't let other countries take over financial innovation while we fall behind.
Another point I want to make is that informed trading isn't a bad thing. When people with good information trade, it makes the market prices more accurate. That benefits everyone, not just traders. Its like having a better weather forecast; even if youre not a meteorologist, you still gain from the data. I think this ties into Question 29 from the ANPR about whether informed traders help price discovery. My view is that they absolutely do, and the CFTC should focus on preventing illegal insider trading without stifling the market as a whole.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or consumer harm, and those shouldn't be ignored. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle fraud and abuse in other markets. Use those same tools here. Don't punish regular participants like me by shutting down something valuable. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without broad bans or overly tight restrictions on prediction markets.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Christopher Guaman
