Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dylan Hively, and I'm a regular citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, which I believe offer a unique and valuable way to engage with real-world events, and I want to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets.
I first got into prediction markets because I saw how they provide insights you can't find anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator, the prices reflect what people actually think, often more accurately than polls or talking heads on TV. I spend time researching and analyzing before I trade, just like I would for any investment. To me, this isn't gambling, it's a way to put my knowledge to work. And when everyday folks like me participate, it makes the market's predictions sharper. Informed trading helps everyone, not just traders, by creating better price discovery. I think the CFTC should consider this benefit when looking at questions like 29 and 30 about the role of informed traders in these markets.
I'm also worried about what happens if these markets get banned or over-restricted. I've seen offshore platforms out there, and they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as regulated ones like Kalshi. If you push activity offshore by making rules too tight, people like me lose the protections of a U.S.-regulated market. It's just common sense that a supervised market is better than an unregulated one operating in the shadows. I hope the CFTC keeps this in mind when addressing questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection.
I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. Those are real issues, but the answer isn't to shut down prediction markets. The CFTC already has tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other markets, and those can work here too. Banning or heavily restricting these markets would just punish regular participants like me who are playing by the rules. I urge you to focus on targeted regulations that address specific risks without throwing out the whole concept.
Prediction markets give people like me a chance to engage with the world in a meaningful way. They're legal, they're regulated, and they're useful. Please support proportionate rules that let these markets thrive while keeping them safe and fair for everyone.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Dylan Hively
