Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ross Hoene, and I'm a small individual trader based in Arizona with a background in finance. Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and Ive seen firsthand how valuable these markets are, both for my personal financial strategies and for society as a whole.
As a trader, I spend a lot of time building models to predict things like gas prices. I use prediction markets to test my insights, share my forecasts, and supplement my income. The data I get from platforms like Kalshi often feels more reliable than what I see in polls or hear from pundits. For instance, during the last election cycle, the odds on Kalshi gave me a clearer picture of likely outcomes than any news outlet. That kind of accuracy isnt just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone make better decisions, from regular folks to policymakers. I believe the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation like this, not falling behind other countries by over-restricting or banning these markets.
I also want to stress that event contracts arent gambling. They serve a real economic purpose. When I trade on Kalshi, Im not tossing dice; Im researching, analyzing, and making informed judgments about real-world events. Its no different from trading stocks or commodities based on market trends. Plus, informed trading by people like me actually improves price discovery, which benefits all participants and even those who dont trade. Shutting down or overly restricting these markets would take away my freedom to participate in a legal, regulated space where Im contributing valuable information.
I appreciate that the CFTC has concerns, especially around manipulation or insider trading, as raised in questions 29-32 of the ANPR. I agree those issues need attention. But the answer isnt broad categorical bans. Its proportionate, targeted rules. The CFTC already has tools to combat market manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Adapt those for prediction markets instead of punishing everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. I also think your questions 7-14 on public interest hit the mark. We need to balance innovation with protection, and regulated markets like Kalshi are safer than pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Let small traders like me continue to participate in these valuable, innovative tools that improve forecasting and democratize access to information.
Sincerely,
Ross Hoene
