Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Farrell, and I'm an everyday citizen from New York who actively trades on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that protect consumers without banning or over-restricting these markets.
I've been trading on prediction markets for a while now, mostly focusing on elections and major public events. What keeps me coming back is how much more accurate these platforms are compared to polls or TV pundits. Last year, I followed the forecasts for a major national election on Kalshi, and the market prices were spot on while the polls were all over the place. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders; it's valuable for anyone trying to understand what's really happening. I think it's a public good, honestly.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are just gambling. To me, trading on these markets feels more like investing in stocks. It takes research, reading up on current events, and making informed guesses about the future. I'm not rolling dice; I'm using my judgment. Classifying this as gaming, as some might suggest in questions 15-22 of the ANPR, ignores the real economic purpose behind it, like price discovery and even hedging risks tied to political or economic shifts.
I'm all for consumer protection, but banning or over-restricting these markets isn't the answer. If the CFTC cracks down too hard, people like me will just turn to offshore platforms that aren't regulated at all. That's less safe for everyone. Instead, keep these markets legal and under your oversight. As you ask in questions 7-14 about public interest, I think the balance should favor innovation with strong guardrails, not outright prohibitions. And on the issue of manipulation or insider trading, raised in questions 29-32, I believe the CFTC already has solid tools to tackle bad actors. Use those existing powers rather than punishing the rest of us with bans.
I just want the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets that give me a chance to engage with the world in a meaningful way. Prediction markets aren't perfect, and I get that there are risks. But shutting them down or over-regulating them would be a mistake. Please support proportionate rules that address specific concerns without killing off the benefits these platforms bring.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ryan Farrell
