Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brian Tucker, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Missouri writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big-time trader, just someone who believes these markets can be a positive thing for people like me if they're regulated the right way.
Im pretty new to prediction markets, but Ive been reading up on them, and Im really impressed by what they can do. From what Ive seen, they often predict outcomes better than polls or TV pundits. That kind of information isnt just helpful for traders; its useful for all of us who want to make sense of whats happening in politics or the economy. I also like that these markets let regular folks like me participate in a legal, regulated way. It feels fair, not like something locked up for Wall Street alone.
One thing that hits close to home is the idea of hedging personal financial risks. I run a small side hustle selling handmade goods, and changes in taxes or trade policies after an election could hit my bottom line hard. Being able to use a prediction market to offset some of that uncertainty would be a real lifeline. Its not gambling; its planning ahead with the best information available. I also worry about the US falling behind in financial innovation. If we over-restrict these markets, other countries will step in, and well lose out on jobs and ideas.
Ive got some concerns about bad actors, sure, but I dont think the answer is banning or over-restricting prediction markets. The CFTC already has strong tools to stop manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Why not use those here? Ive read about platforms like Kalshi that are regulated by the CFTC, and that seems a lot safer than pushing people to unregulated offshore sites. If we crack down too hard, thats exactly where the activity will go, and no one will be protected.
I noticed a few questions in the ANPR that tie into my thoughts. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation should focus on safety without stifling new ideas. And for Question 29, on inside information, I believe the existing laws against insider trading should be enforced rather than creating broad bans that hurt honest participants.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate rules for prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Let regular people like me have access to these tools under clear, fair guidelines. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Brian Tucker
