Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is William Duncan, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Missouri writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under fair and clear regulation. I believe these markets can provide valuable information for public decision-making and price discovery, and I want to see them accessible to everyone, not just the wealthy.
I think prediction markets offer something unique. They give better insights than polls or pundits by aggregating what people really think through their trades. That kind of information helps not just traders but anyone trying to understand where things are headed, whether it's an election or an economic shift. As someone without a fancy degree or insider connections, I appreciate that these markets let regular folks like me participate on equal footing with the rich. Freedom to join in legal, regulated markets matters to me. Poor people shouldn't be locked out of tools that could help us make better decisions or even hedge against risks that hit us hardest.
That said, Im not blind to the risks. I want strong consumer protection through regulation. Markets like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms where there's no accountability. If we over-restrict or ban these markets here, people will just go to those shady sites, and that's worse for everyone. I'm also concerned about transparency. There needs to be a clear definition of what transparency means for these companies, and they must be required to show theyre following the rules. No hidden tricks or fine print.
Ive read about academic research showing how informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting all market participants. That makes sense to me. The more people bring real knowledge to the table, the better the market reflects reality. So, regarding your questions 29 to 32 on inside information, I think the CFTC should focus on enforcing existing laws against insider trading rather than broad restrictions that could limit who can trade. And on questions 7 to 14 about public interest, I believe proportionate, targeted regulation is the way to go. Dont ban whole categories of contracts. Just address specific problems like manipulation with specific rules.
Im asking you to support well-regulated prediction markets that are open to all Americans. Keep them transparent, keep them safe, but dont shut them down or make them a playground for only the elite. Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
William Duncan
