Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Noah Feato, and I'm just a regular citizen from Hawaii writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will approach this with balanced rules instead of heavy restrictions.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted a better way to understand what's happening in the world. Polls and pundits often get things wrong, but the prices on these markets cut through the noise. They've consistently been more accurate, whether it's about elections or economic data. That information isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone make better decisions. As someone living in Hawaii, where we're often far removed from the mainland's political and economic chatter, having access to this kind of data feels like a lifeline. Beyond that, I use these markets to hedge real risks. For example, Ive traded on contracts tied to inflation data since it directly impacts my cost of living, from rent to groceries. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like any other investment.
I also want to stress that regulated markets like Kalshi are a much safer space for people like me compared to unregulated offshore platforms. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, you're not stopping the activity; you're just pushing it to places with no oversight. Thats worse for everyone. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation here, and I think we should take it. Don't let other countries set the standard.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in the Public Interest section (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection when theyre regulated properly. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading, as noted in questions around Core Principles (Questions 1-6). Use those tools instead of broad bans. On the topic of gaming in Listed Activities (Questions 15-22), I dont see event contracts as gambling. They serve real purposes, like hedging and price discovery. And regarding Inside Information (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, which benefits us all.
Im not blind to the risks. Yes, some bad actors might try to game the system, but punishing everyone by shutting down these markets isn't the answer. Targeted, proportionate regulation makes more sense. I urge you to support rules that let regular folks like me participate in legal, regulated prediction markets without driving this activity offshore.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Noah Feato
