Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Omar Mehr, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I'm writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I believe these markets provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather public input before crafting formal rules.
As a trader, I rely on prediction markets for two big reasons. First, they help me hedge personal and business financial risks. For example, I've used these platforms to offset uncertainties around election outcomes that could impact my tax situation or Federal Reserve decisions that affect my investment timing. This isn't gambling; it's a practical tool, much like trading futures or options to manage risk. Second, the information I get from prediction market prices is often more accurate than what I see from polls or pundits. I've noticed time and again that these markets cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen, whether it's an economic data release or a political event. That kind of insight helps me make better decisions, and I think it benefits the public too when this data is out there.
I also want to stress that regulated platforms like Kalshi are a much safer option compared to unregulated offshore sites. I've traded on both, and the transparency and oversight on a CFTC-registered platform give me confidence that my trades are fair and my funds are secure. Pushing activity to unregulated venues by over-restricting these markets would be a step backward. On a related note, I strongly believe event contracts shouldn't be labeled as gaming. They serve legitimate economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, just as other derivatives do. Treating them as gambling misses the point of why they exist.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address a few areas. On Questions 7-14 under Public Interest, I think the CFTC should prioritize balancing innovation with consumer protection by supporting regulated markets that provide clear price discovery benefits. On Questions 15-22 under Listed Activities, I urge you not to classify these contracts as gaming, as they are tools for informed decision-making, not chance-based bets. Finally, on Questions 29-32 about Inside Information, I believe the existing laws against insider trading are sufficient to handle bad actors without banning entire markets.
I'm all for proportionate regulation that tackles real risks like manipulation or fraud, but I hope the CFTC avoids broad bans or overly restrictive rules that could kill off the benefits prediction markets offer. Thank you for considering my perspective as you shape these policies.
Sincerely,
Omar Mehr
