Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Robert LaChapelle, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me, as well as to society at large, and I urge you to craft rules that allow them to thrive under fair oversight.
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing markets, I can tell you that prediction markets give me insights I can't find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections, economic data, and other events often beat out polls or pundit opinions. That accuracy isn't just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone make better decisions, whether you're a business owner or just a citizen trying to understand the world. Beyond that, these markets let me hedge real risks. For instance, I've used them to offset uncertainty around policy changes that could impact my investments or tax planning. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, ignores their legitimate economic purpose, and I strongly oppose that framing.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives like Polymarket. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, you're not protecting consumers; you're pushing activity to places with no safeguards. Id much rather trade on a platform where I know the CFTC is watching for manipulation or fraud. Speaking of which, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like insider trading and market manipulation, as raised in Questions 29-32. There's no need for heavy-handed bans when you can enforce existing laws and adapt them to event contracts.
I'm also aware of the academic research backing prediction markets, which shows they aggregate information efficiently. That transparency benefits everyone, not just traders. So, when it comes to balancing innovation and consumer protection (Questions 7-14), I think the answer is clear: regulate proportionately, don't shut these markets down. Banning them would hurt regular people like me who use them responsibly, and it would cede innovation to other countries.
I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather input on this. My ask is simple. Please support rules that allow prediction markets to operate under fair, targeted regulation. Dont let over-restriction or misclassification as gaming undermine their value. I'm happy to provide more details on my experiences if it helps.
Sincerely,
Robert LaChapelle
