Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Omar Martin, and I'm a small business owner based in California. I run a local retail store, and while Im not a financial expert, Ive always believed in the importance of fair, accessible markets for regular folks like me. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under sensible regulation, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should encourage them with fair rules rather than heavy restrictions.
As a business owner, I deal with uncertainty every day, whether its changes in local regulations, economic shifts, or even consumer trends. Ive come to see prediction markets as a unique tool that could help people like me get a clearer picture of what might happen in the future. Theyre not just for big investors; they give regular people a chance to participate in understanding and even hedging against events that affect our lives. I value the freedom to engage in legal, regulated markets, and I think its critical that the CFTC ensures this opportunity isnt taken away by overregulation or outright bans.
One thing that really stands out to me is the safety of regulated platforms like Kalshi compared to unregulated offshore sites. If prediction markets are overly restricted or banned here in the U.S., people arent just going to stop trading. Theyll go to offshore platforms with no oversight, no consumer protections, and no accountability. Ive seen this kind of thing in other areas; when legal options are shut down, risky black markets pop up. A regulated market under the CFTCs watch is far safer, and it keeps activity transparent and accountable. I urge you to focus on rules that keep these markets safe and open rather than pushing people toward dangerous alternatives.
I also want to touch on a couple of your specific questions from the ANPR. Regarding Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection under the public interest, I think prediction markets are innovative tools that can benefit society if guided by clear rules, not prohibitions. And for Question 23 on procedural aspects of public interest determinations, I believe the CFTC should set broad, fair standards upfront to allow legitimate markets to operate without constant fear of being shut down on a case-by-case basis.
Im not blind to concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but those are already illegal, and the CFTC has the power to enforce against bad actors. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets punishes everyone for the actions of a few. Please support proportionate regulation that allows safe, legal participation in prediction markets for people like me who just want a fair shot at understanding and preparing for the future.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Omar Martin
