Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Boyd, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this issue.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting a clearer picture of what's likely to happen with elections and other big public events. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms have consistently been more accurate than what I see from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders like me; it's valuable for anyone trying to make sense of the world. I also believe these markets aren't gambling. They take real research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying them as "gaming" feels like a misunderstanding of their purpose, which is to provide legitimate economic value through price discovery and forecasting.
I'm worried that banning or over-restricting these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than a regulated market like Kalshi under CFTC oversight. I've traded on both kinds of platforms, and I can tell you the transparency and accountability on a regulated exchange make a huge difference. If the U.S. cracks down too hard, we're not stopping the activity; we're just losing control over it. On top of that, I think the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation. We shouldn't be handing this space over to other countries by making it too hard for these markets to operate here.
I also want to touch on some of the specific questions in the ANPR. Regarding Questions 7 to 14 on public interest, I believe prediction markets strike a balance between innovation and consumer protection when they're regulated properly. They provide unique data that benefits everyone, not just traders. On Questions 15 to 22 about listed activities, I urge you not to lump event contracts in with gaming. They serve real purposes, like helping people hedge risks tied to public events. And for Questions 29 to 32 on inside information, I think the CFTC already has the tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading. The focus should be on enforcing those rules, not banning entire markets because of a few bad actors.
I'm just a regular person who values the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Please don't let over-restriction push this valuable tool offshore or out of reach for everyday Americans like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ryan Boyd
