Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dan Sangwa, and I'm a business owner based in Florida. Im writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone originally from Congo, Ive always valued having a voice and making informed choices, not just following the crowd. Thats why I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I believe these markets serve a vital purpose for individuals like me and for society at large.
Prediction markets arent just a niche hobby. They provide information you cant get anywhere else. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and public events are often more accurate than polls or pundit opinions. As a business owner, I rely on this data to make better decisions about risks that could impact my operations, like policy changes tied to election outcomes. This isnt gambling, its research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as gaming ignores their real economic value, whether its price discovery or helping people hedge against uncertainty.
I also believe these markets give regular folks like me a chance to participate in something meaningful. They democratize access to information and let everyday people have a stake in understanding the world around us. Banning or over-restricting them would likely push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which is far worse than having well-regulated markets here in the U.S. Plus, the academic research is clear. Studies by economists show prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, benefiting not just traders but the public, media, and even policymakers who need reliable data.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from your ANPR. On Question 7, regarding the balance between innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC should focus on targeted rules to address risks like manipulation, which you already have tools to handle, rather than broad prohibitions. And on Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly argue that event contracts serve purposes like hedging and forecasting, distinct from gambling. They shouldnt be lumped together.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, but those are already illegal under existing laws. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. Youve got the authority to enforce the rules you already have, so use those instead of restrictive bans.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with proportionate rules that allow innovation while addressing specific risks. These markets are a powerful tool for forecasting and decision-making, and they deserve to thrive under fair oversight. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Dan Sangwa
