Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Isaiah Moore, and I'm a small business owner from Georgia. Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I want to share why these markets are valuable to me and why the CFTC should focus on smart regulation rather than bans or heavy restrictions.
Running a small business means Im constantly dealing with uncertainty, whether its fluctuating prices for goods or policy changes that could impact my costs. Prediction markets have become a critical tool for me to hedge against some of that risk. For instance, Ive used these platforms to bet on outcomes like inflation data releases or potential tariff changes that directly affect my supply chain. The information I get from these markets, the aggregated wisdom of many traders, is often more reliable than what I hear from news outlets or even industry reports. It helps me make better decisions for my business and plan ahead.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and Im not dismissing those. But the CFTC already has powerful tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets. I believe those same tools can work here without shutting down an entire industry. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets wont stop people from trading; itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Id much rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are rules and protections in place, than take my chances with some shady offshore site.
On that note, I think the US has a real chance to lead in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban these markets, were just handing the future of this technology to other countries. Thats not what I want to see as an American business owner. Im particularly drawn to Question 7 in your ANPR about balancing innovation and consumer protection. My take is simple: let regular folks like me participate in legal, regulated markets while using your existing authority to crack down on bad actors.
I also want to touch on Question 11, about price discovery. The data from prediction markets isnt just useful to traders; its a public good. Ive seen firsthand how these platforms often predict outcomes more accurately than polls. That kind of insight shouldnt be locked away or driven underground.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Keep them accessible to small business owners like me who rely on them for hedging and better decision-making. Focus on enforcing the rules you already have to keep these markets fair and safe.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Isaiah Moore
