Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Riley Kitchen, and I'm an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about things like elections and major public events. Polls and pundits often get it wrong, but I've seen firsthand how these markets cut through the noise. Their forecasts are consistently sharper, and that benefits not just traders like me, but anyone who wants reliable data, from journalists to policymakers. Beyond that, participating in these markets feels like a way to engage with the world around me. It's not gambling, it's about researching and making informed judgments, much like investing in stocks. These event contracts have real economic value for price discovery and even hedging against uncertainty.
I'm also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. I've used offshore platforms like Polymarket, and while they're accessible, they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as a regulated platform like Kalshi. If we push this activity offshore with heavy-handed rules, everyday people like me lose the protections that come with US oversight. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. I believe those can be adapted here without resorting to broad bans. Targeted, proportionate regulation makes far more sense.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few points. Regarding Question 7 under Public Interest, I think prediction markets strike a crucial balance between innovation and consumer protection when regulated properly. They give regular folks like me access to unique information while still allowing oversight. On Question 29 about inside information, I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits everyone by making the market more accurate. And in response to Question 15 on listed activities, I urge the CFTC to recognize that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real purposes, like helping people understand and manage risks tied to public events.
The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation with prediction markets. We shouldn't cede that ground to other countries by over-regulating. I'm asking you to support a framework that allows these markets to thrive with clear, fair rules that protect participants without shutting down the whole space. Let's keep this activity safe, transparent, and accessible right here at home.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Riley Kitchen
