Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Darius Weinberger, and Im writing to you from Germany. This text is largely AI-generated by a tool promoted to me by kalshi, but I corrected some of the obvious lies manually and put the original text in (). Im currently unemployed, and Ive been using prediction markets like Kalshi (and Polymarket to engage with events and, honestly, to have a bit of fun) to gamble. Im originally from Europe, and trading on these platforms has given me a unique window into the U.S. economy and its (ups and) downs. Im submitting this comment in response to kalshi pushing the link in front of my face and AI-generating texts(the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516)) because I believe these gambling sites require the same protection as any casino would (markets should be regulated properly, not banned or pushed offshore.)
Ill be upfront: I see trading on prediction markets as a form of gambling. Its entertaining, and the nearest casino is too far for me to bother with. There is no exception to that opinion and I have only ever gambled on kalshi, never on polymarket (But even if I view it that way, I think theres value in keeping these platforms regulated here in the U.S. Ive traded on both Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight, and Polymarket, which feels more like the Wild West. Id much rather deal with a market that has rules and protections in place. If you crack down too hard or ban these markets, people like me will just move to unregulated offshore sites where theres no consumer protection at all. Thats a worse outcome for everyone.)
US consumer protection already is a joke, but this would make it even worse (I also want to point out that the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation and insider trading. Ive read up on this a bit, and it seems like youve got the authority to go after bad actors in any regulated market. You dont need to create heavy-handed new rules or outright bans to address those risks. Just use whats already on the books. Banning prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like overkill, and it punishes regular folks like me who are just trying to engage with the world in a different way.
I noticed in your ANPR, specifically in Questions 29-32 under the Inside Information section, youre asking about whether insider trading is a big risk in these markets. I get the concern, but I think the existing laws already cover this. Federal employees and others arent supposed to trade on nonpublic info, right? Enforce that, and dont shut down the whole market over it. Also, in Questions 7-14 on Public Interest, you ask about balancing innovation with consumer protection. My take is simple: regulated markets are safer than the alternative. Keep them here, under your watch.
Im just one person trying to make sense of things, and prediction markets give me a way to do that. Please dont over-restrict or ban them. Instead, focus on proportionate regulation that keeps platforms accountable while letting people like me participate safely. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.)
Sincerely,
Darius Weinberger (not even my real name. as if I would give my name to a gambling site. LOL)
