Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Trimble, and I'm a trader and investor based in Iowa. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I wanted to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as someone who uses these platforms regularly can help inform your approach.
For me, prediction markets aren't just a hobby or a way to make a few bucks. They're a tool that provides information I can't get anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits. Whether it's an election result or an economic indicator like a CPI report, the prices on these platforms cut through the noise of opinion pieces and talking heads. That kind of clarity isn't just useful for traders like me; it benefits everyone who wants to understand what's really likely to happen. I think shutting down or over-restricting these markets would be a loss for public knowledge.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. Trading on prediction markets takes research, analysis, and real-world judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. I spend hours digging into data and news before placing a trade. That's not a roll of the dice; it's a calculated decision. Plus, these markets have real economic value. I've used them to hedge personal financial risks, like potential policy changes from an election that could impact my investments or taxes. For someone like me in Iowa, where agriculture plays a big role, being able to hedge against regulatory or economic shifts tied to political events is a practical necessity, not a game.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that those are real issues. But those problems are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce them. Banning or severely limiting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the rest of us who use these platforms responsibly. I believe in my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, and I think the focus should be on targeted rules to address specific risks, not broad restrictions.
In response to some of the questions in the ANPR, particularly Questions 7 and 15, I urge you to consider how prediction markets serve the public interest through better forecasting and how event contracts are distinct from gaming. They're a legitimate financial tool, not a casino. I hope you'll craft rules that allow regular people like me to keep accessing these markets while addressing valid concerns with precision.
Thank you for considering my input. I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid bans or overly restrictive policies that would limit their benefits.
Sincerely,
Ryan Trimble
