Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tyrone Frary, and I'm a software engineer based in California. I work in tech, building tools that help people make sense of complex data, and I've recently become interested in prediction markets as a way to aggregate information about the world. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value and should not be overly restricted or banned.
As someone who's new to prediction markets, I see them as a fascinating and useful tool. They're not just about making a bet; they provide insights into elections and public events that you can't get from polls or pundits. I've seen firsthand how data aggregation can reveal patterns, and prediction markets do that for real-world outcomes. This isn't gambling in my view. It takes research and judgment to participate, much like investing in stocks. Event contracts serve a real economic purpose by helping people understand and hedge against uncertainty. Calling this gaming feels like a misstep when the activity is so tied to information and analysis.
I also strongly believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we ban or over-restrict these markets, we're not stopping the activity; we're just pushing it to less transparent, riskier venues. That doesn't protect anyone. As a tech professional, I also think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't cede this space to other countries. Prediction markets are a cutting-edge way to harness collective knowledge, and we ought to be at the forefront.
On the topic of informed trading, addressed in Questions 29-32 of the ANPR, I believe it improves price discovery and benefits everyone in the market. When people with knowledge trade, the prices reflect better information, which helps all of us make sense of what's likely to happen. Banning or limiting participation to stop a few bad actors would hurt the majority who use these markets responsibly. The CFTC already has tools to tackle insider trading and manipulation. Use those instead of broad restrictions.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban entire categories of contracts or make it impossible for regular people like me to participate. Focus on targeted rules that address specific risks while preserving the value these markets provide. Let's keep this innovation alive and safe in the US.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Tyrone Frary
