Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Helly Hansen, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Florida writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm not an expert or a big-time trader, but I'm really interested in how we can better forecast future events like elections or other public happenings. Prediction markets have caught my attention as a way to help me adjust my expectations with information that feels more reliable than what I hear from polls or pundits.
I'm pretty new to prediction markets, but I already see their value. I've noticed how often the prices on these platforms seem to predict outcomes better than the talking heads on TV or even some of the surveys we see. That kind of accuracy isn't just helpful for me personally; it could improve decision-making for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers. I think having better, clearer information out there is a public good, and prediction markets seem to play a big role in that through price discovery. I've also read about academic studies showing how these markets pull together data in a transparent way, which just adds to my belief that they're worth supporting.
One thing I'm worried about is the idea of classifying event contracts as gambling. To me, that doesn't make sense. Trading on these markets isn't a game of chance; it's about research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. These contracts serve real purposes, like helping people understand risks or even hedge against uncertainties. Calling them gaming feels like a misstep. Another concern is over-restricting or banning these markets. If that happens, I think people will just turn to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way less safe than something like Kalshi that's under CFTC oversight. Why push activity into the shadows when we can keep it regulated and transparent here?
I also believe the US should be leading the charge on financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead while we drag our feet. And on the topic of informed trading, I think it actually helps. When people with good information trade, it makes the prices more accurate, and that benefits everyone, not just the traders. I'm looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and protection, and Question 15 on defining gaming. My take is simple: support innovation with fair rules, and don't lump event contracts in with gambling.
I hope the CFTC will move forward with proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to grow while addressing real risks with targeted solutions. Please don't ban or over-restrict them. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Helly Hansen
