Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Evan McCormick, and Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Im not a lawyer or a finance expert, just someone who values the freedom to participate in competitive, legal markets and who sees real value in what prediction markets offer. Ive been following these platforms for years to get clear insights into the direction of the world, and Ive recently started trading. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and want to explain why.
Prediction markets cut through the noise of political and cultural arguments. In a crazy political climate like this one, its reassuring to see grounded predictions about the economy, geopolitics, and war. These markets have helped me plan my life better. They helped me navigate the government shutdown in Fall of 2025 (and alerted me to its end on November 12th), alerted me to war in Venezuela and Iran, and let me track real-time updates on the outlook in Iran. Seriously, who the hell could ever get a sense of what's going on in Iran by listening to Trump, Hegseth, Netanyahu, or whoever the hell's in charge in Tehran? It's a mess. But, thanks to markets like Kalshi, really smart people are investing real time and energy to accurately forecasting the outcome of this mess. Millions of people visit sites like Kalshi, and get the privilege of reading these forecasts without spending a dime. It helps us plan our lives with a decent understanding of what's going on in the world. Thats a public service.
I also believe regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, youre not stopping people from trading, youre just pushing them to less safe places. Id rather see the CFTC focus on proportionate rules that target real risks like manipulation or insider trading, rather than broad bans. And lets be clear, event contracts arent gambling. They serve real economic purposes like price discovery and hedging. Ive used them to gauge risks that affect my personal finances. Calling this gaming feels like a stretch, especially when you compare it to predatory sports betting sites like FanDuel or DraftKings. Why punish a useful tool over something already legal and far worse?
I noticed some of your questions, like in Topic B (Questions 7-14) about public interest and price discovery, and Topic E (Questions 29-32) on informed trading. I think informed traders actually improve price accuracy, which benefits everyone, not just participants. And on public interest, these markets give better forecasts than traditional methods. Academic research backs this up, and as someone who values data, Id love to see more transparency encouraged through regulation, not restriction.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep them legal, safe, and accessible for everyday people like me who want to participate and benefit from better information. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Evan McCormick
