Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Shindledecker, and I'm a business owner from Pennsylvania. I run a company that works to regulate markets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, helping ensure competitive prices so everyday people can get fair deals on the contracts they trade. I also actively trade on these prediction markets myself, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to society and to businesses like mine, and I urge you to craft rules that protect consumers without stifling innovation.
Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; theyre a tool. Ive seen firsthand how their prices often predict outcomes, like elections or economic events, more accurately than polls or pundits. That kind of insight helps me make better decisions for my business, and its valuable to the public too. Beyond that, these markets let individuals and businesses hedge real risks. For example, I can offset uncertainties around policy changes or economic data releases that could impact my operations. This isnt gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as gaming undercuts their legitimate economic purpose, and I hope the CFTC sees that distinction when addressing questions 15 through 22 in your ANPR.
I also worry about what happens if these markets are over-restricted or banned. Regulated platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives like Polymarket often used to be. If you make it too hard to trade legally here, activity will just move to less safe venues where consumers have no protection. Id much rather see the U.S. lead in financial innovation, setting the standard for how prediction markets should work, instead of ceding that ground to other countries. This ties into your questions 7 through 14 on public interest and innovation, and I believe supporting regulated markets strikes the right balance.
On concerns like manipulation or insider trading, I get it, those are real risks. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues, as youve shown in other derivatives markets. Banning or overly restricting prediction markets punishes honest participants like me instead of targeting bad actors. Plus, informed trading often improves price discovery, making markets more accurate for everyone, a point raised in questions 29 through 32. Lets focus on enforcing existing laws, not creating broad prohibitions.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible, legal, and safe. Dont let overzealous rules push this valuable tool out of reach for Americans or out of the U.S. altogether. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
John Shindledecker
