Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christian Ebio, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a lawyer or a financial expert, just someone who has been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now. Ive come to see these markets as valuable, and I strongly support their regulation in a fair and balanced way, not outright bans or heavy restrictions.
I believe prediction markets are a good thing for people like me. They give regular folks a chance to engage with real-world events in a way thats different from just reading the news or listening to pundits. The prices on these platforms often tell me things I cant get anywhere else, like a clearer picture of what might happen in an election or with a policy change. Its not gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Plus, Ive used these markets to hedge personal risks, like betting on economic outcomes that could affect my budget. Thats real value.
What I care about most is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. I dont think its right to shut down or over-regulate something just because a few might misuse it. Insider trading and manipulation are already illegal, and the CFTC has the power to go after bad actors. Banning prediction markets to stop a small number of cheaters would punish honest users like me. Its like closing a highway because some people speed. Instead, enforce the rules you already have.
I also think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban these markets, were just pushing people to offshore platforms that arent safe or accountable. Id rather trade on a regulated US platform like Kalshi than take my chances somewhere else. Why cede this space to other countries? Lets keep the innovation here and set the standard. Im particularly interested in your questions 7 and 8 from the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection. My view is simple: protect us by regulating smartly, not by shutting things down.
Im not blind to the concerns. I get that some worry about manipulation or insider info, as raised in questions 29 to 32. But again, the answer isnt to ban these markets. Its to watch them closely and punish anyone breaking the law. Most of us trading are just trying to make informed decisions, not cheat the system.
I hope youll consider my perspective as a regular Texan who values this opportunity. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets that lets everyday people like me participate while addressing risks with targeted rules. Dont let heavy-handed restrictions push this innovation out of the US.
Sincerely,
Christian Ebio
