Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jared Stuart, and I'm an everyday citizen from New York. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their continued operation under fair, proportionate regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets provide real value to people like me, as well as to society at large, and I want to share why I think they deserve a thoughtful regulatory framework instead of overly restrictive rules or bans.
First off, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets give information you can't find anywhere else. For elections and other public events, their forecasts often beat out polls and pundits. I remember checking a market during the last election cycle, and the probabilities felt more grounded than what I was hearing on TV. That kind of clarity helps regular folks like me make sense of the world, and I think it could help policymakers and businesses too. It's not just about trading; it's about better decision-making for everyone.
I also see these markets as a way to manage personal financial risks. For instance, if an election outcome could impact taxes or regulations that affect my budget, having a way to hedge that uncertainty feels practical, not speculative. It's no different from how people use other financial tools to protect themselves. Calling this gambling doesn't make sense to me. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. I worry that if we over-restrict or ban these markets, people will just turn to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier. I'd much rather see safe, CFTC-regulated options like Kalshi stay accessible.
On that note, I think the US should be leading the charge in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, other countries will take the lead, and we'll miss out on the benefits. I'm also aware of the academic research showing how prediction markets improve price discovery. Informed traders actually make the system better for everyone, and that's a public good. Of course, I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues. Banning entire markets to stop a few bad actors seems like overkill to me.
Id like to touch on a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. Regarding Question 7 under Public Interest, I believe prediction markets do serve the public by offering unique data and hedging opportunities, and regulation should balance innovation with consumer protection. On Question 29 under Inside Information, I think informed trading often improves accuracy, and existing laws already address misuse of nonpublic information.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with targeted, proportionate rules rather than broad restrictions. Keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the US. Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
Jared Stuart
