Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel Hengesh, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they offer real value to people like me, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow them to thrive without over-restricting access.
Here's why I care so much. This is America, and we deserve the freedom to participate in markets like these, especially when they're regulated properly through platforms like Kalshi. I've used prediction markets to hedge personal financial risks, like betting on economic indicators that affect my budget or election outcomes that could impact my taxes. Beyond that, the information these markets provide is incredible. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts are often more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of price discovery helps everyone, not just traders, by giving clearer signals about what might happen in the world. It's a tool for better decision-making, whether you're a regular person or a policymaker.
I also want to address a few concerns I've heard. Some call these markets gambling, but I disagree. Trading on event contracts takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging risk, and shouldn't be lumped in with gaming. I'm all for consumer protection, but the answer isn't banning or over-restricting these markets. That just pushes activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier. Regulated markets like Kalshi are safer, and the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading. Use those tools instead of broad bans. Plus, informed trading actually improves price discovery, which benefits everyone in the market.
I'm also drawn to the academic research on this, which shows prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. And let's not forget innovation. The U.S. should be leading the way on financial tools like these, not ceding ground to other countries. I think the CFTC's questions, especially 7 through 14 on public interest and 15 through 22 on defining legitimate markets, get to the heart of this. I urge you to focus on proportionate, targeted regulation rather than categorical restrictions. Address specific risks without shutting down the whole space.
One last thought. There's no good reason to block this kind of market. We already pay taxes on any income from trading, so the government gets its share. Let regulated platforms like Kalshi operate, collect the tax dollars, and call it a win for everyone.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support prediction markets with fair, balanced rules that protect consumers while allowing innovation and access for regular people like me. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Daniel Hengesh
