Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brett Sasaki, and I'm a finance professional based in Hawaii. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they offer unique value both to individuals like me and to society at large.
As someone working in finance, I see firsthand how prediction markets provide information that you just can't get from polls or pundits. Their forecasts are often more accurate, aggregating real-world insights into prices that help with decision-making. This isn't just useful for traders; it benefits the public, policymakers, and businesses by offering better data for price discovery. I also use these markets to hedge personal and business financial risks. For instance, being in Hawaii, where weather and economic policies can impact everything from shipping costs to tourism, I've found event contracts helpful for managing uncertainty around things like trade tariffs or regulatory changes.
I want to stress that these markets aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, much like any other investment vehicle. Classifying them as "gaming" undercuts their value in hedging and price discovery, and I urge the CFTC to recognize this distinction when addressing questions like 15-22 on listed activities. Trading on prediction markets requires research and judgment, not luck. It's disappointing when I hear calls to ban or over-restrict them because of concerns about manipulation or insider trading. The CFTC already has robust tools to tackle those issues, as noted in questions 1-6 on core principles. Let's use those tools instead of broad categorical bans that punish everyone.
I'm also worried that over-regulation will push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than regulated markets like Kalshi. On questions 7-14 about public interest, I believe consumer protection is best achieved through smart regulation, not prohibition. Banning these markets won't stop trading; it will just send it to places where there's no oversight. Plus, the U.S. should be leading in financial innovation. We shouldn't cede this space to other countries by making it too hard to operate here.
Finally, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery, as discussed in questions 29-32 on inside information. While insider trading is a valid concern, it's already illegal, and the answer isn't to shut down markets but to enforce existing laws. Proportionate, targeted rules will work better than heavy-handed restrictions.
I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets that allow individuals like me the freedom to participate in legal, transparent platforms. Please focus on targeted solutions to specific risks rather than broad bans. Mahalo for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Brett Sasaki
