Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ashish Urval, and I'm a trader and investor based in New York. I've used prediction markets a few times to gain insights on elections and other public events, and Im writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets offer unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that encourage innovation while addressing risks in a targeted way.
As someone who trades and invests, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information thats hard to find elsewhere. Their forecasts on elections and public events have consistently outperformed polls and pundits, giving me a clearer picture of what might happen. This isnt just useful for traders; its valuable for anyone making decisions, from business owners to policymakers. I also appreciate the freedom to participate in legal, regulated platforms like Kalshi. Keeping these markets open to regular people, not just big institutions, makes the system fairer and the data more robust. Its not gambling, its informed decision-making based on real-world events.
Im also concerned about U.S. competitiveness in financial innovation. If we ban or over-restrict prediction markets, we risk pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight. Id much rather see the CFTC regulate these markets proportionately, ensuring safety and transparency while keeping the U.S. at the forefront of financial technology. Regulated markets are far safer than the alternatives, and we shouldnt cede this space to other countries. On a related note, addressing Question 7 from the ANPR on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe the CFTC can achieve both by focusing on specific risks like manipulation rather than broad categorical bans.
I also want to touch on Question 29 about inside information. Informed trading actually improves price discovery, which benefits everyone participating in these markets. The CFTC already has tools to combat insider trading and manipulation in other derivatives markets, and those can be adapted here without shutting down the entire system. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. Transparency in this data helps us all make better decisions.
Im not blind to the risks, like potential manipulation or misuse. But banning or heavily restricting these markets isnt the answer. It punishes the majority of us who use them responsibly. Instead, I ask the CFTC to develop targeted regulations that address specific concerns while preserving the benefits of prediction markets. Lets keep these markets legal, safe, and accessible to everyday Americans like me, and ensure the U.S. remains a leader in financial innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ashish Urval
