Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is David Pike, and I'm just a regular citizen from Utah writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I believe these markets offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets rather than imposing broad bans or overly restrictive rules.
As someone who follows elections and public events closely, Ive found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for getting information thats often more accurate than polls or pundits. I remember during the last election cycle, the markets on Kalshi gave me a clearer picture of what might happen than any news outlet or survey. That kind of insight isnt just helpful for traders; its valuable for everyone, from journalists to policymakers, who need reliable data to make decisions. These markets aggregate what people really think, and thats a public good.
I also see prediction markets as a way for regular folks like me to participate in something thats fair and legal, as long as its regulated properly. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry that activity will just move to less safe venues where theres no consumer protection at all. Plus, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like potential tax changes tied to election outcomes that could hit my budget hard. This isnt gambling; its a practical way to manage uncertainty, much like any other investment.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that those are real issues. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those problems in other derivatives markets. I believe those same tools can work here without punishing everyone by shutting down entire markets. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill. And honestly, informed trading often makes prices more accurate, which helps everyone, not just the traders.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7 under Public Interest, I strongly believe prediction markets serve the public by improving price discovery and forecasting. On Question 15 under Listed Activities, I dont think event contracts should be classified as gaming; they have legitimate economic purposes like hedging and information aggregation. And on Question 33 regarding Classification, I think proportionate regulation tailored to specific risks is the way to go, not broad categorical restrictions.
The U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation, not cede that ground to other countries. Im asking the CFTC to craft rules that protect consumers while allowing prediction markets to thrive. Lets keep these markets regulated, transparent, and accessible to everyday people like me.
Sincerely,
David Pike
