Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joseph Rosamond, and I'm an everyday citizen from California writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I strongly support the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like these. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to seek public input before drafting rules, and I want to share my perspective on why these markets are valuable, even if I have some serious concerns about certain platforms.
I believe prediction markets are important because they often produce more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms can cut through the noise of talking heads on TV or unreliable surveys. That kind of information is useful not just to traders like me, but to anyone trying to make sense of the world, whether it's about elections, economic data, or other big events. I think it's a good thing that regular people like me can participate in these markets. Keeping them open to everyone, not just big institutions, makes the forecasts better and feels fairer. This isn't gambling in my mind. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks.
That said, I have real issues with how some platforms operate, especially Kalshi. In my experience, Kalshi often uses misleading titles for their contracts that don't match the obscure "official rules" buried in the fine print. This creates gray areas that make it hard to know what you're really betting on. I've felt burned by this, and it seems like the only people who consistently win are insiders who know how to game the system. To me, that makes it feel more like gambling than legitimate prediction trading. I worry that without clear rules, platforms like this prey on regular users.
I think the CFTC can address this without banning prediction markets altogether. In response to your questions about consumer protection under Public Interest (Questions 7-14), I urge you to focus on transparency. Force platforms to make contract terms crystal clear, with no misleading titles or hidden rules. And on the topic of insider trading from Questions 29-32, I believe the CFTC should crack down hard on insiders who exploit gray areas, using the tools you already have. Banning these markets entirely would just push activity to sketchy offshore sites, which helps no one.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal and accessible for people like me, but make sure the rules protect us from being misled or taken advantage of by bad actors. Don't let a few problematic platforms ruin a good thing.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Joseph Rosamond
