Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nick Barnhill, and I'm a small business owner from Texas. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under fair and sensible regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets can be a valuable tool for people like me, and I want to see them thrive in a legal, transparent way.
Running a business here in Texas, I deal with uncertainty every day, whether its policy changes, economic shifts, or even weather events that impact my operations. Ive come to see prediction markets as a potential way to get a clearer picture of what might happen and to hedge against risks that affect my livelihood. These markets offer unique insights that I cant find in news or polls, and I think thats a benefit not just for me but for anyone trying to make informed decisions. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. As a business owner, I dont think its right to lock regular folks like me out of tools that big institutions might get to use. Democratizing access to these markets makes sense, and I believe it leads to better, more accurate information for everyone.
What concerns me most is the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. I understand there are risks, like manipulation or insider trading, but those are already illegal under existing laws. The CFTC has the power to enforce those rules without shutting down an entire market. More importantly, regulated platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If prediction markets are overly restricted here, people will just turn to those less safe venues. Id rather see the U.S. lead on this with clear rules that keep markets fair and transparent. This ties directly to questions 7 and 8 in your ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think the answer is regulation, not prohibition.
I also want to address the idea that prediction markets are just gambling. I dont see it that way. Participating takes research and judgment, much like any other investment I make for my business. Its about understanding the world around me, not rolling dice. On questions 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize the real economic value here.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Craft rules that address specific risks while allowing innovation and access for everyday Americans like me. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Nick Barnhill
