Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Will Richman, and I'm a professional trader from a small farm town in the United States. I've been trading for years, including actively participating in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to society and to people like me who rely on accurate information to make decisions.
Growing up in a rural community, I saw firsthand how much uncertainty around policy, weather, and economic shifts can impact small towns and working folks. Prediction markets have been a game-changer for me. They offer insights you can't get from news or polls, often with better accuracy on things like election outcomes or regulatory changes. That kind of price discovery isn't just helpful for traders; its valuable for anyone trying to plan their life or business. Ive used these markets to hedge risks tied to political events that could affect markets I trade in, and I know others who do the same. This isn't gambling. Its about research and real-world judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Shutting regular people like me out of prediction markets would mean only big institutions get access to this information. Thats not fair, and it makes the prices less accurate since fewer perspectives are in the mix. Im all for regulation to keep things safe, but it shouldnt come at the cost of locking out everyday traders.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address Questions 7 and 29. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC already has strong tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. These can and should be applied to prediction markets without banning or over-restricting them. On Question 29, about informed traders and price discovery, I believe informed trading is a net positive. When people with knowledge participate, it makes the markets predictions sharper, which benefits everyone, not just those trading. Bad actors can be dealt with using existing laws, not by punishing the whole market.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont let a fear of a few bad actors lead to bans or heavy restrictions that hurt regular participants like me. Focus on using the robust tools you already have to keep these markets fair and transparent. Prediction markets are too valuable to stifle, and with the right oversight, they can thrive while protecting the public.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Will Richman
