Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Abbey Woods, and I'm a student and academic from the United States. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, both to me personally and to society at large. Im asking the CFTC to craft rules that allow these markets to thrive under fair oversight, rather than imposing bans or overly restrictive policies.
Prediction markets arent just a hobby for me; theyre a source of insight that I cant find anywhere else. Ive used them to better understand real-world events, from election outcomes to economic indicators, and Ive noticed how often their forecasts beat out traditional polls or pundit opinions. As a student, I value this accuracy because it helps me make sense of complex issues Im studying. Beyond my own use, I believe these markets aggregate information in a way that benefits everyone, including policymakers and the public. Academic research, which Im deeply interested in, backs this up. Studies by economists like Hanson and Wolfers show prediction markets are powerful tools for information discovery. I urge the CFTC to consider this forecasting value when addressing questions 7 and 8 on public interest.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. To me, trading on these platforms requires research, analysis, and judgment, much like any other investment. I spend hours reading news and data before placing a trade. This isnt a game of chance; it serves real economic purposes like price discovery and even hedging for some users. I hope the CFTC will reflect on this distinction when looking at questions 15 and 16 about defining legitimate market activities.
As someone who values innovation, Im concerned about the US losing its edge in financial technology. If prediction markets face bans or harsh restrictions, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for users like me. Id much rather trade on a regulated US market like Kalshi, where theres oversight. This ties directly to question 33 on classification and regulatory costs. Please dont let heavy-handed rules push innovation and users out of the country.
Finally, I care deeply about my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. These platforms give regular people like me a chance to engage with important events in a meaningful way. Shutting that down would feel like a step backward. I also believe in data transparency, and regulated markets can provide valuable public data for academic research if done right.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support prediction markets with balanced, targeted regulations that address risks without stifling access or innovation. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Abbey Woods
