Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tom McPeek, and I'm a trader and investor from the United States. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, as well as to society at large, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that allow them to thrive under fair oversight.
As a trader, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets deliver information you can't get anywhere else. Their forecasts on elections and public events consistently beat polls and pundits. Ive relied on these markets to get a clearer picture of whats likely to happen, whether its a presidential race or a major policy shift. That kind of insight isnt just useful for traders; its valuable for anyone making decisions, from business owners to everyday citizens. Plus, these platforms let regular people like me hedge real financial risks. For example, Ive used prediction markets to offset potential impacts of election outcomes on my investments or to brace for economic policy changes that could affect my portfolio. This isnt gambling. Its a practical tool, much like trading stocks or commodities, based on research and judgment.
I also want to stress that regulated markets, like Kalshi, are far safer than the unregulated offshore platforms out there. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, people wont stop trading; theyll just move to less secure, foreign sites where theres no oversight. Thats a loss for American consumers and for US leadership in financial innovation. We should be at the forefront of this space, not handing the advantage to other countries. Im particularly concerned with questions 7 and 8 from the ANPR, on balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe the answer lies in smart regulation, not prohibition. Targeted rules can address risks like manipulation or insider trading, which the CFTC already has tools to combat, without stifling the benefits of these markets.
I understand there are concerns about potential abuse, like insider trading. But shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors makes no sense. Its already illegal for federal employees or anyone to trade on nonpublic information, and the CFTC has the authority to enforce against manipulation. Use those powers instead of punishing law-abiding traders like me. Regarding question 29 on inside information, Id argue that informed traders often improve price discovery, as long as theyre not breaking laws. Lets focus on enforcement, not blanket bans.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Allow us the freedom to participate in legal, regulated platforms that provide accurate forecasts, hedging tools, and better information for everyone. Dont push this activity offshore by over-restricting. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Tom McPeek
