Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Lucas Barbu, and I'm a trader and investor from the United States. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I want to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. Theyve become an important tool for me, both professionally and personally, and I believe they serve a valuable purpose for society as a whole.
As someone who runs a sports page, Ive found prediction markets to be incredibly useful. Trading on Kalshi has helped me build storylines and make informed predictions for my audience. The data and insights from these markets often cut through the noise of pundits and polls, giving me a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. Its not just about me, though. This kind of information benefits everyone, from casual readers to decision-makers who need reliable forecasts. I think of it as a democratized source of truth, and thats something worth protecting.
Im particularly focused on the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, provide a safe and transparent environment for people like me to trade. Banning or over-restricting these markets wont stop the activity; itll just push it to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no accountability. Ive seen what happens when people are forced to use sketchy sites. Theres no recourse if something goes wrong. Keeping prediction markets regulated here in the U.S. ensures consumer protection while allowing innovation to thrive. Speaking of innovation, I believe the U.S. should be leading the way in financial tools like these, not ceding ground to other countries. We have the expertise and the framework to do this right.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding balancing innovation and consumer protection under the public interest, I think regulated markets like Kalshi already strike that balance. They allow everyday people to participate while having safeguards in place. On Question 11, about price discovery, I can attest that prediction markets provide unique insights you cant get elsewhere, and thats a public good. Finally, on Question 23, about procedural aspects of public interest determinations, I urge the CFTC to avoid blanket bans and instead focus on case-by-case or targeted rules that address specific risks without stifling the entire industry.
I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but those issues are already illegal under existing laws. The CFTC has the tools to enforce against bad actors without shutting down these markets for the rest of us. I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Lets keep this innovative tool accessible and safe under U.S. oversight.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Lucas Barbu
