Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nicolas Oliver, and I'm writing from the United States as someone who works in sales. I'm reaching out to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not a trader or an expert in finance, but Ive become really interested in prediction markets through using the Kalshi app, and I believe they have a lot of value for people like me and for society as a whole. I hope youll consider my perspective as you develop regulations for these markets.
I dont trade on prediction markets myself, but I check Kalshi almost daily to keep up with news and headlines. Its become a unique way for me to see what events or issues are trending, whether its an upcoming election, a major policy decision, or some other public event. The app gives me a quick snapshot of what people are paying attention to, and it often prompts me to read more about topics I might have overlooked otherwise. Its not just a novelty; its a tool that helps me stay informed. I think that kind of transparency and access to information is something we should encourage, not restrict.
Beyond my personal use, Im convinced that prediction markets offer real benefits to individuals and businesses. From what Ive read, these markets often provide more accurate forecasts for elections and other public events than traditional polls or pundits. Thats valuable information, not just for traders but for anyone trying to make sense of the world. Ive also come across academic research that supports this, showing how prediction markets aggregate data in ways that improve transparency and understanding. Plus, they help people and businesses hedge against real risks, like a small business owner protecting against policy changes or an individual worried about economic shifts tied to election outcomes. This isnt gambling; its a practical tool for managing uncertainty.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I dont dismiss those. But I believe the CFTC already has tools to address bad actors without banning or over-restricting these markets. Regarding your questions in the ANPR, particularly in Topic E (Questions 29-32) about inside information, I think informed traders can actually improve price discovery, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced. And on Topic B (Questions 7-14) about public interest, I believe the benefits of innovation and access to information outweigh the risks if regulation is done thoughtfully.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont impose broad bans or restrictions that would limit their potential or push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while preserving the value these markets offer to people like me who rely on them for information and insight.
Thank you for considering my comments.
Sincerely,
Nicolas Oliver
